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Back in January, amid Donald Trump’s election pledges to resolve the conflict in Ukraine in under 24 hours” still vivid in memory, there was real unease in Moscow over Trump’s plans. When Mr. Trump suggested that “high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions” on Russia could be required, one well-known pro-war Russian analyst wrote: “It is better to get ready for the worst. Soon, we’ll look back on the previous term with nostalgia, like a warm period.”

Empty Threats and Missed Opportunities

Just how mistaken can you be? From then, the US president has repeatedly talked a big game without managing to following the walk. By May, after Vladimir Putin turned down a month-long ceasefire, and negotiation talks in Turkey went nowhere, a devastating” US penalties package did not to appear. An 8 August deadline for Mr Putin to agree to a halt in fighting somehow turned into a lavish welcome in Alaska, where Mr Trump applauded a leader sought for war crimes as he disembarked from his plane. The “severe consequences” warned of by Mr Trump if the Alaska talks failed to peace never occur.

Encouraged Actions and Allied Vulnerabilities

Emboldened, Mr Putin has thus persisted to prosecute his war objectives in Ukraine, and test for western weaknesses. Last week’s intrusion of Russian drones into Polish territory laid bare inadequate Nato planning, as F-35 and F-16 fighter jets were quickly scrambled to deal with low-cost suicide devices that are priced around $ten thousand each to produce. It also communicated a message of possible intensification in the event of any future “reassurance force” deploying European troops on Ukrainian soil. This kind of provocation called for a strong and coordinated response, exerting the kind of pressure on the Kremlin which Mr Trump has so far refused to consider. Instead the US president seems, yet again, to prefer pressuring his European allies to confronting Mr Putin. In a statement which smacked of bad faith, Mr Trump stated over the weekend that the US was “ready” to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, but only if certain improbable conditions were met.

Impractical Demands and Economic Pressures

Eyeing a significant economic gain, Washington is demanding that the EU must increase its imports of US LNG at a rate that analysts consider undoable. Other stipulations include the imposition by the EU of 50%-100% tariffs on Russia’s most important ally, China, and an end to all imports of Russian oil by Nato members. This includes Turkey, which has refused to sanction Moscow, imports 57% of its oil from Russia, and lies outside the EU.

Observers looking on the positive side in Brussels believe that Mr Trump’s pressure may convince pro-Trump governments in Hungary and Slovakia to end their deep dependence on Russian energy imports. That is extremely unlikely to happen, as Mr Trump and his advisers must know. Nor can the EU afford to court the kind of economic retaliation from Beijing that caused Mr Trump himself to back down from a full-blown trade war not long ago.

Ominous Events and Absence of Movement

Throughout this week’s state visit, it will be Sir Keir Starmer’s turn to try to pin Mr Trump down on decisive action. But from the unproductive Alaska talks to his latest diversionary tactics with the EU, Mr Trump keeps finding reasons not to get tough on Russia. Last week’s drone incursion in Poland represented an worrying upping of the ante. Ukraine’s prospects, and wider European security interests, are being gradually undermined by a president who, in this context, barks but never bites.