Dutch Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Voters in the Netherlands are preparing to potentially replace the most rightwing government in recent memory with a more moderate and commonsense coalition during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were called after the breakdown of the previous administration in June, when rightwing politician Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks established a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his allies declined to implement a far-reaching comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, turning back all asylum seekers, closing most asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are predicted to gain representation, but none is expected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, typically an influential player on the European and global scene, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
There are 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 mandates to form a majority. No individual group ever manages this, and the Holland has been ruled by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – earlier if administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that secures less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been characterized in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the army to fight "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the start of the millennium, but dropped to just five seats in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a full-blown merger, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to increase representation – capturing up to 17, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its leader, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decrease. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the once popular, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of voters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to decline, with the NSC not even sure of representation in parliament.
The top issues so far have been immigration, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Dutch politics, what coalitions are feasible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Various combinations look plausible, most involving a combination of parties from moderate left and center right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and several smaller parties possibly incorporating JA21.