🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.